Key Participants:
- Kobe - Investment Director, Bisheng Capital
- Jibai - Partner, ChainCapital
- Aries Wang - Partner at BlockWater Capital & Co-founder of Bibox
Host:
Nancy - Marketing Director, HyperPay
What Fueled Bitcoin's Current Bull Run?
Macroeconomic Factors
Aries identifies three primary drivers:
- Global quantitative easing policies flooding markets with liquidity
- Institutional adoption through vehicles like Grayscale's GBTC
- Crypto's inherent cyclical growth patterns
Kobe highlights institutional involvement:
"Over 80% of GBTC holders are institutional investors, with holdings growing 70% since mid-2020. This reflects deepening institutional confidence."
Jibai emphasizes capital inflow dynamics:
- Traditional finance embracing crypto (MicroStrategy, PayPal, etc.)
- Daily BTC demand exceeding mining supply by 10%
Is the Bull Market Over After 20% Correction?
Market Sentiment Analysis
Aries views this as healthy consolidation:
"BTC recovered to $38K within days, demonstrating strong underlying demand. I remain bullish for 2024."
Kobe cautions about macroeconomic shifts:
"Federal Reserve policy changes may cause short-term volatility, but long-term upward trajectory remains intact."
Jibai provides a liquidity perspective:
"With continued monetary easing and institutional adoption, exit fundamentals aren't yet present. This appears to be profit-taking before further growth."
Investment Strategies for Current Market Conditions
Expert Recommendations
Aries advises:
- Focus on established assets like BTC/ETH
- Avoid unregulated altcoin projects
- Allocate only risk-capital
Kobe stresses:
- Rigorous risk management
- Developing personal investment theses
- Recognizing that returns reflect knowledge
The State of DeFi in 2024
Sector Evolution
Aries observes:
"While yield farming hype cooled, fundamentals strengthened. Projects like Uniswap and Aave continue delivering value."
Kobe notes:
- TVL recently hit all-time highs
- Anticipates UniSwap/Sushi protocol upgrades
- Emerging algorithmic stablecoin projects gaining traction
Jibai highlights innovations:
"Algorithmic stablecoins (BAC, BAGS) demonstrate DeFi's ongoing capacity for financial experimentation."
Why Haven't Altcoins Matched BTC's Performance?
Market Structure Insights
Aries explains:
"Institutional preference for BTC creates asymmetric growth. Mature altprojects like AAVE show similar potential."
Kobe adds:
"Market cycles suggest altcoins follow BTC's lead. Current divergence indicates we're still early in this bull cycle."
Will Bitcoin Escape the "Chinese New Year Curse"?
Historical Context vs. Current Reality
Aries analyzes:
"While Asian traders traditionally liquidate positions pre-holiday, Western institutional buying now provides counterbalancing support."
Kobe reframes the narrative:
"2020's 'institutional bull market' behaves differently than 2017's retail-driven cycle. Any pullback likely temporary."
Jibai concludes:
"The 'curse' was always psychological. With global participation, lunar calendar events have diminished impact."
FAQ Section
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin before Chinese New Year?
A: Historical patterns don't guarantee future results. Assess your risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Q: What makes this bull market different?
A: Institutional involvement (through GBTC, ETFs) provides more stable capital than previous retail-driven rallies.
Q: Which DeFi sectors show promise?
A: Algorithmic stablecoins and protocol upgrades to established platforms present interesting opportunities.
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