Key Takeaways
- Elliott Wave analysis projects XRP could surge to $12 by 2026, fueled by a potential third-wave uptrend.
- Whale activity shows accumulation of 440 million XRP tokens in the past month, signaling bullish sentiment.
- A falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart hints at a breakout above $2.36**, with **$2 acting as critical support.
- Derivatives data reveals $4.89 million in long-position liquidations, urging cautious trading.
Elliott Wave Analysis: The Path to $12
XRP currently trades at $2.17 (May 2025), down 5% weekly due to muted catalysts. However, technical indicators suggest a major rally is brewing:
- Corrective Phase Complete: XRP consolidated between $2.05–$1.65, marking the end of a pullback.
- Third Wave Imminent: Historically, this phase drives strong uptrends. Analyst EWCycles targets $12 (2,900% gain) by 2026.
- Ascending Channel Formation: Higher highs and lows within this structure reinforce bullish momentum.
"XRP’s double-digit target remains $12. The extensive move will soon validate this projection."
— EWCycles via Twitter
Whale Accumulation: Bullish Signals
On-Chain Insights
- 1M–10M XRP wallets bought 190M tokens.
- 10M–100M XRP whales acquired 440M tokens in 30 days.
👉 Why whale activity matters for XRP’s price trajectory
Contradictory Metrics
- Declining Whale Transactions: Large ($100K+) trades dipped, per Santiment.
- Positive Funding Rates: Since May 1, derivatives premiums suggest short-term bullishness.
Technical Breakdown: Short-Term Targets
4-Hour Chart
- Falling Wedge Pattern: A breakout above the upper trendline could trigger a 7% rally to $2.36.
- RSI at 43: Needs upward momentum to confirm buyer interest.
Daily Chart
- **Resistance at $2.50**: 50% Fibonacci level of the $3.40–$1.61 drop.
Bullish Indicators:
- RSI > 54 (neutral).
- MACD green bars.
Support Levels
- Critical: $2.13 (breakdown risks drop to $1.96).
Regulatory Outlook: SEC Lawsuit & ETF Prospects
- SEC vs. Ripple Appeal Deadline: Extended to June 15, 2025.
- XRP ETF Delay: Franklin Templeton’s approval pushed to June 17, 2025.
Expert Commentary:
"The timing appears strategic. An XRP ETF in 2025 seems plausible."
— Bill Morgan, Legal Analyst
Derivatives Caution: Liquidation Risks
- 24-Hour Liquidations: $5.24M** total, with **$4.89M from long positions.
- Implication: Bullish traders faced significant losses; market sentiment remains mixed.
FAQ: XRP Price Projections
1. Can XRP realistically hit $12?
Yes, if the Elliott Wave third-wave uptrend materializes, as seen in past cycles.
2. What’s the biggest risk to XRP’s rally?
Losing $2 support** could invalidate the bullish structure, pushing prices toward **$1.96.
3. How reliable is whale accumulation data?
While indicative, it must align with technical breaks (e.g., wedge pattern) for confirmation.
👉 Explore XRP trading strategies
4. When might an XRP ETF launch?
Post-SEC lawsuit resolution (mid-2025) is a likely window, per regulatory timelines.
Final Thoughts
XRP’s $12 target** hinges on technical confirmations (wedge breakout, RSI uptick) and regulatory clarity. Whale accumulation and Elliott Wave theory offer optimism, but traders should monitor **$2 support and derivatives trends closely.
Disclaimer: This analysis is informational only. Conduct independent research before investing.