Introduction
With Goerli's successful transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), Ethereum developers now focus on the mainnet Merge. Two primary scenarios are under consideration:
- Early Scenario: Bellatrix upgrade on August 31, Merge TTD reached by September 15.
- Late Scenario: Bellatrix upgrade on September 6, Merge TTD reached by September 20.
This article explores the methodology for predicting Total Terminal Difficulty (TTD) values, analyzing hash rate trends, and evaluating both scenarios.
Understanding Merge TTD
Objective: Determine a TTD value that will be reached between the Bellatrix upgrade and late September. Adjustments can be made if hash rates drop significantly post-Bellatrix.
Key Factors:
- TTD represents the cumulative mining difficulty required to trigger the Merge.
- Predictions use polynomial regression based on 4-week historical data.
- Accuracy depends on future hash rate stability (±5% daily fluctuations observed recently).
Hash Rate Trends
Recent observations show:
- Average hash rate: ~900 TH/s (peaked at 1.126 PH/s in May 2023).
- Monthly oscillations between 780 TH/s and 950 TH/s.
- Correlation with ETH price movements (though not perfectly aligned).
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Predictive Modeling Tools
- TTD Prediction Script: Calculates required hash rates to hit TTD by specific dates.
- Visualizations project necessary hash rates throughout September, accounting for potential declines.
Scenario 1: August Bellatrix Upgrade
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Bellatrix Upgrade | August 31 |
| Merge TTD Reach | September 15 |
Predicted TTD Range: 58750000000000000000000 (rounded down from 5877487756139069440–58834281007084994560000).
Hash Rate Requirements
| Date | Required Hash Rate | vs ATH | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 1392 TH/s | +23% | +58% |
| Sep 15 | 872 TH/s | -22% | +0% |
| Sep 30 | 623 TH/s | -44% | -29% |
Key Insight: A 30% hash rate drop could delay TTD reach until late September.
Scenario 2: September Bellatrix Upgrade
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Bellatrix Upgrade | September 6 |
| Merge TTD Reach | September 20 |
Predicted TTD Range: 59100000000000000000000 (rounded down from 5915542925294436352–59227132692074332160000).
Hash Rate Requirements
| Date | Required Hash Rate | vs ATH | vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 | 1205 TH/s | -7% | +37% |
| Sep 22 | 826 TH/s | -26% | -5% |
| Oct 4 | 651 TH/s | -42% | -25% |
Key Insight: Allows more time to adjust TTD if hash rates decline post-Bellatrix.
👉 Dive deeper into Ethereum's PoS transition
FAQ Section
1. What happens if hash rates drop unexpectedly?
A: Developers can manually override TTD via client instructions to account for significant deviations.
2. How accurate are TTD predictions?
A: Accuracy hinges on hash rate stability. Polynomial regression models achieve ~90% confidence with <5% daily fluctuations.
3. Why round down TTD values?
A: Conservative estimates buffer against sudden hash rate declines, ensuring the Merge isn’t prematurely triggered.
4. Could the Merge be delayed beyond September?
A: Possible if hash rates plummet >40%, requiring TTD recalibration.
Conclusion
Both scenarios present trade-offs between predictability and flexibility. Monitoring real-time hash rates post-Bellatrix will be critical to finalizing TTD values. Stakeholders should prepare for potential adjustments to ensure a smooth transition to PoS.