Introduction
The imminent Ethereum Proof-of-Stake (PoS) Merge marks the end of an era for ETH mining. This transition raises a critical question: Where will the current ETH hashrate—valued at $8 billion—migrate after the Merge?
While miners may shift to PoW-based chains like ETC, RVN, or Ergo, their capacity to absorb ETH’s massive hashrate is severely limited. This article explores the data behind this "constrained choice" and its implications for miners.
Hashrate Migration: Key Findings
Current ETH Hashrate Snapshot (September 2022)
- Total ETH hashrate: 764 TH/s
- Mining hardware value: ~$8 billion
Projected Absorption by Alternative Chains
| Blockchain | Max Absorbable Hashrate | Break-even Threshold* | Profitability Outlook |
|------------|------------------------|----------------------|-----------------------|
| ETC | ~139 TH/s | 282 TH/s | Limited |
| RVN | Minor absorption | N/A | Moderate (best option)|
| Ergo | Negligible | N/A | Low |
*Assumptions: $0.06/kWh electricity, 2.55 J/MH machine efficiency.
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Key Insight:
- 84.12% of ETH’s hashrate (734 TH/s) will lack viable destinations.
- Chains like Beam or Bitcoin Gold absorb <0.7 TH/s combined.
Post-Merge Realities for Miners
Who Survives the Transition?
Efficient Operators: Miners with:
- Sub-$0.03/kWh electricity rates.
- Machines under 1.57 J/MH efficiency.
- Retail Miners: Likely forced to exit due to unprofitability at $0.06/kWh.
GPU Market Collapse
- RTX 3090 prices dropped 68% YoY (eBay data).
- Post-Merge, a steeper decline is expected as surplus hardware floods markets.
👉 Track GPU price trends to time equipment sales.
FAQs
1. Can ETC fully replace ETH for miners?
No. ETC’s infrastructure caps absorption at ~18% of ETH’s current hashrate. Profitability requires unrealistic break-even thresholds (e.g., 460 TH/s for less efficient rigs).
2. What’s the best alternative to ETH mining?
RVN offers marginally better returns but lacks capacity for large-scale hashrate migration.
3. Should I sell my GPUs post-Merge?
If operating above $0.06/kWh, selling early may mitigate losses. Efficient miners could hold for future opportunities.
Conclusion
The PoS Merge will irreversibly disrupt GPU mining. While ETC and RVN may offer temporary lifelines, their limited scalability means most ETH hashrate faces obsolescence. Miners must either:
- Upgrade to hyper-efficient hardware.
- Exit and capitalize on residual GPU value.
For deeper analysis on post-Merge GPU economics, stay tuned for our next report.