Cryptocurrency researcher Aurora from venture capital firm Lead Capital recently analyzed market maker Wintermute's strategies for OP and APE tokens. By reviewing Wintermute's trading patterns, Aurora predicts potential price movements for BLUR—another token managed by Wintermute—suggesting it may consolidate at lower prices before reaching new highs.
Let's recap the market-making strategy for $BLUR that gained attention recently.
Everyone knows @wintermute_t is the market maker for $BLUR, as well as for $OP and $APE. Therefore, by studying the past trends of $OP and $APE, $BLUR's price becomes predictable.
— Aurora (@Auroraaa_Liu) March 8, 2023
Wintermute’s Market-Making Strategy: APE
Key Observations:
- Pre-Launch Accumulation: APE (Bored Ape Yacht Club’s ecosystem token) launched on March 17, 2022. By March 4, the project had transferred 1.75M APE to Wintermute’s multi-signature wallet, with another identical transfer on March 18.
- High-Price Dumping: One day before launch (March 16), APE was moved to a Wintermute-labeled address and distributed to centralized exchanges (e.g., KuCoin, Binance). Aurora suggests this was a strategy to sell high at launch and buy back at lower prices.
- Post-Launch Market Making: Wintermute maintained ~100K APE while profiting from arbitrage. Before APE’s April peak, they accumulated more tokens, selling heavily after the price surge. By June, Wintermute exited the APE market entirely.
👉 Discover how market makers influence token volatility
Wintermute’s Market-Making Strategy: OP
Key Observations:
- Post-Hack Recovery: Despite losing 20M OP to a hack at launch (June 1, 2022), Wintermute secured an additional 20M OP and dumped them at high prices.
- Long-Term Holdings: Unlike APE, Wintermute retained hundreds of thousands of OP during its August 2022 peak. Current addresses still hold sizable amounts, coinciding with OP’s ongoing third price surge.
Four-Phase Strategy:
- Initial high-price dumping
- Low-price buyback
- New peak accumulation
- Hold or sell (if held, expect another rally)
BLUR’s Potential Price Trajectory
- Launch Behavior: BLUR launched February 15, 2023. Wintermute received tokens the prior day, dumping them at high prices (Phase 1) before repurchasing at lower levels (Phase 2).
- Current Status: Wintermute holds >10M BLUR, suggesting accumulation for a future peak (Phase 3). Notably, 290M BLUR remains locked in Blur’s multi-sign wallet, reducing sell pressure.
Caution: BLUR remains in a downtrend. Monitor risk carefully, as token utility and external factors also influence price.
FAQ
Q: Why does Wintermute’s strategy matter?
A: Market makers stabilize liquidity but can exploit price swings. Tracking their moves helps predict trends.
Q: Is BLUR a good investment now?
A: While a breakout is possible, the token’s downtrend requires cautious entry.
Q: How do APE and OP differ fundamentally?
A: APE is a community token; OP powers L2 transactions. Their use cases affect long-term demand.
👉 Learn more about crypto market dynamics
Risk Disclosure: Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk. Prices may fluctuate drastically, and you could lose all capital. Assess risks prudently.