Standard Chartered's digital assets research head, Geoffrey Kendrick, forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) could achieve its strongest half-year performance in late 2025. Key drivers include unprecedented ETF inflows, Federal Reserve policy risks, and increasing sovereign adoption.
Key Factors Driving Bitcoin's Growth
1. ETF Inflows and Corporate Demand
- Kendrick projects ETF and corporate treasury purchases will surpass Q2 2024 levels (245,000 BTC) in Q3 and Q4.
- Standard Chartered maintains its year-end price target of $200,000**, with a Q3 projection of **$135,000.
- ETF flows have exceeded expectations, validating Bitcoin’s post-halving price trajectory.
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2. Policy Shifts and Regulatory Clarity
- Potential early replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell could lead to looser monetary policy, benefiting Bitcoin.
- The GENIUS Act (recently approved by the US Senate) enhances crypto regulation, fostering institutional adoption.
3. Sovereign Adoption
- National-level Bitcoin purchases could mirror the demand stability seen from corporate treasury accumulation.
Why the Halving Cycle Theory May No Longer Apply
Historically, Bitcoin prices dropped ~18 months post-halving (e.g., Q3/Q4 2024 based on April 2024 halving). However, Kendrick argues:
- ETF inflows and corporate buying (absent in past cycles) may prevent the typical decline.
- Short-term volatility is expected in late September/early October, but the long-term uptrend will resume.
"Buckle up." — Geoffrey Kendrick
FAQs
Q1: Will Bitcoin really reach $200,000 by 2025?
A: Standard Chartered’s analysis cites ETF demand and policy tailwinds as key catalysts, but market volatility remains a factor.
Q2: How does the GENIUS Act impact Bitcoin?
A: It provides regulatory clarity, encouraging institutional participation and integration into traditional finance.
Q3: Is sovereign adoption of Bitcoin likely?
A: Yes—countries may follow corporations in adding BTC to reserves, bolstering long-term price stability.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle is poised to break historical patterns, driven by structural demand shifts and macro policy changes. Investors should monitor ETF flows, regulatory developments, and sovereign interest for directional cues.
Keyword integration: Bitcoin ETF, halving cycle, sovereign adoption, GENIUS Act, Standard Chartered, BTC price prediction.
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