Bitcoin's market cycle tool, IBCI, reveals that BTC currently sits at a "neutral point," suggesting significant upside potential remains before this bull run peaks.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) from CryptoQuant signals ample room for bull market expansion
- Despite BTC/USD hitting all-time highs, the market remains at a "definition point" with neutral readings
- Puell Multiple lingers near historically low levels — atypical behavior during peak bull phases
- Multiple metrics suggest BTC hasn't entered full euphoria phase yet
- Price targets exceeding $200K remain plausible for this cycle
Bitcoin Price at a "Definition Point"
The latest IBCI readings confirm Bitcoin's current bull run shows no signs of exhaustion. This composite indicator integrates:
- Puell Multiple
- Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio
- Other proven on-chain metrics
Notably, IBCI values sit far below traditional zones associated with market tops. CryptoQuant contributor Gaah explains:
👉 Why Bitcoin's neutral phase matters now
"The balanced 50% IBCI range indicates a transitional period between price discovery phases — not an exhaustion phase. Historically, such neutrality precedes new upward movements."
Source: Bitcoin IBCI Chart (CryptoQuant)
Market Behavior Analysis
Since October 2024 — when BTC/USD surpassed its previous $73,800 ATH — IBCI stabilized at 50%, contrasting sharply with:
- The profit-taking frenzy of late 2024
- Typical euphoric indicators seen at past cycle peaks
Gaah observes:
"The gradual price recovery without extreme FOMO suggests untapped upside potential. We're seeing accumulation characteristics despite new highs."
Anomalies in Bitcoin's Price Discovery
Several metrics defy expectations during this price discovery phase:
| Indicator | Current Value | Historical Peak Value |
|---|---|---|
| Puell Multiple | 1.27 | 4.0+ |
| IBCI | 50% | 75%-90% |
| Top Signals* | 0/30 | 25+/30 |
*Based on Cointelegraph's 30-point peak checklist
👉 How to spot genuine bull markets
The Puell Multiple's unusually low position at 1.27 (versus typical 4.0+ at past peaks) particularly stands out. Gaah notes:
"Such depressed miner revenue multiples at ATHs are unprecedented. This either indicates early-cycle dynamics persisting at high prices, or a fundamentally stronger market structure."
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How reliable is the IBCI indicator?
A: With 10 years of backtested data against BTC price action, IBCI has accurately identified neutral zones preceding major rallies in 2016, 2019, and 2021.
Q: What price targets make sense now?
A: Conservative models suggest $150K-$175K, while extreme scenarios (based on MVRV projections) exceed $300K if current adoption curves hold.
Q: Why isn't miner revenue spiking?
A: Possible reasons include: 1) More efficient mining hardware lowering costs 2) Increased institutional buying absorbing sell pressure 3) Longer-term holder dominance.
Q: When might indicators turn bearish?
A: Watch for IBCI exceeding 75%, Puell Multiple above 3.5, and sustained negative funding rates — none currently present.
The Road Ahead
This cycle continues breaking conventions. The extended neutral phase suggests either:
- A delayed but more explosive peak
- A fundamental shift in market structure
Historical parallels become less reliable at these valuations. As always in crypto, maintain:
- Risk management protocols
- Cold storage solutions
- Balanced portfolio strategies
The absence of classical top signals doesn't guarantee indefinite growth — but it does confirm we're not dancing near the exits yet.